However, given the observations of significantly better weather at Mildura, they also concluded a diversion was a better option at that time. These included the following products: US AIP GEN 3.5 section 7 described two basic types of FIS, broadcast only, which was called FIS-B and two-way request/reply. The ILS transmitter was a Category 1 unit with a minimum visibility of 1,200 m required for landing. While the crew was manoeuvring the aircraft for an approach to runway 34L at Sydney, the fog moved across the threshold of that runway reducing visibility to below the landing minima. definition of notifiable updates) and removal of the differentiation between passive and active flight following such that all flights are now flight followed. Dr. Marohasy, Those practice approaches were carried out in conditions equal to or better than the CAT I minima. imagine a nearby lightning strike producing a believable pulse. Even a mere pleb such as myself can see that the temperature readings are remarkably different, and always tending higher, not lower. Both aircraft had the necessary equipment to conduct at least a CAT II (fail passive) autoland at Adelaide and both flight crews were trained and approved in Cat II/III autoland procedures. . However, fog had been forecast for both Edinburgh and Parafield airports. On board were 6 crew members and 85 passengers. The investigation is continuing and will: The information contained in this Interim report is released in accordance with section 25 of the Transport Safety Investigation Act 2003 and is derived from the ongoing investigation of the occurrence. However, the timely dissemination of such information optimises the likelihood of effective flight crew planning and decision making. In September 2015 the BOM implementation of Himawari 8 satellite data. In relation to the provision of ATC-initiated FIS at Mildura, the controller responsible for the Mallee en route sector reported that workload initially precluded them from passing information on the weather deterioration at Mildura Airport. The ATSB reviewed each of the independent systems in place to support the flights, including air traffic control (ATC), the operators and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), as well as the actions of individuals within these systems. Weather avoidance assistance was also available from ATC in the US. READ MORE. However, as the deterioration was forecast to improve prior to their arrival, it is likely that, at that stage, they would have elected to continue to Adelaide. Where is the data and analysis for these sites? These, and other factors, are investigated in detail in ATSB research report AR-2013-200. For example, a report showing an improvement in the weather may be useful to an aircraft in the holding pattern directly overhead the aerodrome, to decide on whether or not to fly the approach or not. Slight chance of a shower. As the conditions had deteriorated below this minima, the RNAV GNSS approach could not be conducted in normal operations. At this time, a SPECI was issued for Mildura, showing visibility was now 900 m in fog and that the cloud was overcast at 100 ft AGL. The fuel on board at take-off from Sydney was 7,900 kg, as recorded on operational documentation. The crew of Velocity1384asked for an appreciation of the weather and were told by the Dash-8 crew that at the minima, they couldnt see anything. After informing the BoM of this omission, I have been told it is being looked-into that the relevant officer will follow-up on the missing month of data. On 18 June 2013, two Boeing 737 aircraft, VH-YIR operated by Virgin Australia Airlines Pty. This was likely the result of the fuel pumps in the No. Although the captain of Velocity1384indicated that there was sufficient time to assess the option of returning to Adelaide, there was only a matter of several minutes available to make that decision and track towards Adelaide. 256 km Mildura Radar Loop Provides access to meteorological images of the Australian weather watch radar of rainfall and wind. The PM would then read out the steps and point towards the appropriate cockpit switch for the PF to confirm before actioning by the PM. Their estimated arrival time at Mildura was 0942. In this instance, if the aircraft could carry sufficient fuel to hold until 30 minutes beyond any specified time of improvement in the weather conditions at the destination, an alternate was not required. Latest SPECI from two-two-three-zero [0830 EST], wind zero four zero degrees at five knots, visibility one five zero metres in fog, cloud overcast at one hundred, temperature is six, dewpoint is zero five. The systems supervisor was completing the final day of a 2day endorsement check for the position, and operating under supervision at the time of the occurrence. The time period for the provision of SIGMETs (messages about en route weather phenomena that are potentially hazardous to aircraft) was increased to 2 hours in MATS version 6 effective on 19 November 2008. Supporting this decision, the flight crew had also calculated that they had sufficient fuel to hold for about 45 minutes beyond their planned arrival time without using the fixed fuel reserve. Review of Flight Watch/Following activities across several carriers to obtain best practice for this activity Virgin America and Westjet were visited. Automatic Terminal Information Service (ATIS). This was the forecast that was available to the crews of Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 at their times of departure and used for flight planning. Do they do that at all? Both reported considering the observation reports that were current at the time as a more reliable indicator of the weather at Mildura Airport than the relevant forecast. The flight crew of Velocity 1384 also conducted an instrument approach and landed below minima in fog and with fuel below the fixed reserve. At 0938, a LOW FUEL QTY Tank 2 message was recorded on the FDR, with 880 kg remaining in the No. In addition, The Australian Advanced Air Traffic System was amended so that controllers were no longer automatically provided with weather for an airport that had an ABS. Ltd. (Virgin) advised of a review and benchmarking exercise as part of its examination of this occurrence. The CVR recorded discussion between the crew about the position of the fuel pumps and crossfeed valve. Certification for various levels of autoland is dependent on a number of factors. Information from the trial could be used to enhance observations and better define the capability requirement at all airports (completion expected 2017). Aviation is a complex, highreliability industry. Potts, R, Boneh, T, Manickam, M, Miao, Y, Newham, P & Weymouth, G. Application of Bayesian Networks for fog forecasting for aviation in Australia. However, had the 0918 SPECI been disseminated, each crew would have been informed of the developing deterioration at Mildura. Time: 0756 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0758 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0800 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0804 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0805 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0815 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Qantas 735 approaching diversion point, Time: 0830 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 in cruise, Time: 0900 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 on descent to Adelaide, Time: 0902 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 on descent to Adelaide, Time: 0911 EST Velocity 1384 diverting to Mildura, Qantas 735 holding to east of Adelaide, Time: 0918 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 en route to Mildura, Time: 0928 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 on descent to Mildura, Time: 0930 EST Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 approaching Mildura, Time: 0932 EST Velocity 1384 overhead Mildura, Qantas 735 approaching Mildura, Time: 0948 EST Velocity 1384 overhead Mildura, Qantas 735 landed at Mildura, Time: 0952 EST Velocity 1384 overhead Mildura, Qantas 735 shutdown at Mildura, Time: 0956 EST Velocity 1384 overhead Mildura, Time: 1000 EST Velocity 1384 overhead Mildura. Alternatively runway visual range (RVR) is the electronically-recorded visibility at some aerodromes as measured from various stages of the runway - touchdown zone (TDZ), middle of the runway (MID) or end of the runway (END). Automatic weather stations (AWS) provide data to the BoM that is used to generate observation reports and forecasts at various locations throughout Australia. They are not at the same site [about 2 klm apart] so it will be no comparison anyway but when they have this valuable historical data, why destroy it? The ATSB also found that the forecasting process at Mildura Airport appeared to be conservative, with a high false alarm rate. Decision making can be influenced by such factors as workload and stress (Li, 2011; Harris & Li, 2015). The supervisors were also aware that the weather was similarly deteriorating and, in some cases, additional traffic holding requirements were affecting other ports such as Melbourne, Canberra and Albury. provision of information to flight crews from Air traffic services (ATS), ATS policies and procedures affecting the flights, provision by the operators of information to the respective flight crews, the basis for the sequencing of the aircraft landings at Mildura, Bureau of Meteorology meteorological services and products as they applied to these flights. This approach also offered the benefit of a runwayaligned approach that did not require significant manoeuvring once visual. A safety issue is an event or condition that increases safety risk and (a) can reasonably be regarded as having the potential to adversely affect the safety of future operations, and (b) is a characteristic of an organisation or a system, rather than a characteristic of a specific individual, or characteristic of an operating environment at a specific point in time. Check and double check, review and test it. This resulted in the need for both Qantas 735 and Velocity 1384 to land in conditions that were below minima. Typically, this means flying in cloud or limited visibility. The flight crew continued collecting weather updates for various ports as the flight progressed, including Mildura, Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Adelaide. As the aircraft approached Adelaide, fog reduced the visibility at the airport to below the minimum required for landing. Despite the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) knowing of the deteriorating weather at Mildura from other sources, by not passing on the in-flight weather report of deteriorating weather from the departing air ambulance pilot, the controller removed an important source of information for use by the BoM. The actions of the flight crew of the second Virgin aircraft to query ATC about the weather update for Adelaide were consistent with this advice. Whomsoever is in charge of this outfit must be a cowboy, and the workers presumably lazy cattle hands who just go with the flow. As such, there was no requirement for the crews of Velocity 1384 or Qantas 735 to obtain or account for a code grey forecast in their fuel planning for Adelaide. Regardless, a return to Adelaide would have necessitated an automated landing by both crews in conditions that, like Mildura, were below landing minima and therefore constituted an emergency. The MATS section on hazard alerting required ATC to prefix an FIS call with Hazard Alert in the case of a change to a component of FIS not described in a current meteorological product or NOTAM. However, it is also worth noting that the on-request service is workload dependent, and is therefore not guaranteed. This includes river heights. The submissions were reviewed and where considered appropriate, the text of the report was amended accordingly. 128 km Mildura Radar Loop Provides access to meteorological images of the Australian weather watch radar of rainfall and wind. Further, it was identified that in certain circumstances, pilots will not be made aware of a deterioration of weather at an airport that has an Automatic Weather Information Service or other Automatic Broadcast Service. For in-flight FIS, the service consisted of three elements: ATC-initiated FIS allowed for the provision to crews by ATC of pertinent operational information. The AIP also indicated that the FIS comprised three elements: The automatic broadcast services (ABS) consisted of: An automatic terminal information service (ATIS) is an automated pre-recorded transmission indicating the prevailing weather conditions at an airport and other relevant operational information for arriving and departing aircraft. accuracy of aviation meteorological products in Australia. On 12 March 2009, amendment 58 of the AIP changed the pilot responsibility in relation to FIS from requesting the operational information to obtaining the information. In accordance with the core standards and recommended practices outlined in Annex 3, the BoM had implemented a quality management system that was certified in accordance with the standards contained in AS/NZISO9001:2008. This includes weather and operational information for the destination, which should be considered prior to a decision point or point of no return. IN September 2017, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) claimed a series of new record hot days across south eastern Australia, including on 23 September at Mildura. Given the TAF only had a 30 per cent probability of fog, and as the aircraft was in the sterile cockpit phase of flight, flight watch did not pass the TAF to the crew at this point. Before that point, there had been no requirement for the aircraft to carry fuel to continue to a suitable alternate. Airservices advised that monitoring of a flight will increase if flight crew declare an emergency. Velocity1384 landed at Mildura at 1014, in fog conditions. It is the responsibility of the Tower to identify and coordinate Hazard Alert information relating to destination aerodrome(s) within activated civil or military control zones. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts. At this time, the Velocity1384 FO was out of the flight deck. The flight crew of Qantas 735 conducted an instrument approach and landed below minima. Certainly not when temperatures are soaring! If you have any questions about this product, or you want any other weather or climate information, please contact us. Bureau Home > Radar Images > 128 km Mildura 5 min Rainfalls. It is not routinely made available outside these organisations and is not made available to pilots or operators. The diversion was based, in part, on weather observation reports at Mildura indicating the weather was better than forecast. Copyright 2014 - 2022 Jennifer Marohasy. The reports are generated by electronic recording devices called automatic weather stations (AWS) and may have manual input from approved observers. By providing SPECI information proactively, the risk of it being missed as a function of pilot workload, or limitations in the range of AWIS, is reduced. 26 February 2013 the recording for the probe is 37.3, while the mercury thermometer recorded 36.9 on the A8 form). Qantas maintained a sterile cockpit from push back until established above 10,000 ft above mean sea level in the climb. As such, the TTF was not passed to the flight crew. The content of MATS is intended to be consistent with the content of the AIP so that procedures and practices used by pilots and air traffic controllers are standardised. The overall assessment was considered minor and approved by the relevant managers. METAR/SPECI are observations, not forecasts, and as such cannot be used for Flight Planning purposes, other than as a reference to determine temperature for performance purposes. Most of these data are generated automatically and are frequently updated. In response to this occurrence the ATSB issued a safety recommendation to Airservices. The TAF also included TEMPO periods between 0500 and 1000 in which the cloud base was forecast to reduce to 600 ft AGL. However, this information was not communicated to the FO upon the FOs return to the flight deck. The validity time for the actual aerodrome QNH is listed as 15 minutes from the time of receipt. The team leader on the day was a qualified dispatcher with over 20 years of experience. View the current warnings for Victoria. Besides running concurrently for the when change in instrument this should have been done for at least five years for any change in siting. Chance of any rain: 20% Partly cloudy. The second opportunity was at 0839 when Qantas 735 was updated on the conditions at Adelaide Airport and was told the visibility was now 500 m in fog, with no landing attempts having been made for a while. At interview, a dispatch duty manager reported that flight plans are calculated using the relevant TAF rather than a TTF. This was my thought exactly after reading Jennifers Spectator article. The sources of information during the investigation included: Endsley, M 1997, The role of situation awareness in naturalistic decision making, in C Zsambok & G Klein (Eds.) 1968 Total Observations 10% 20% 30% Calm 3% . It should be noted that there was insufficient detail in some of the reports to identify if the crew was alerted to the unforecast weather. (c) changes in the serviceability of navigation aids; (d) changes in the condition of aerodromes and associated facilities, including information on the state of the aerodrome movement areas when they are affected by snow, ice, or water; (f) pre-eruption volcanic activity, volcanic eruptions, and volcanic ash clouds; (g) release into the atmosphere of radioactive materials or toxic chemicals; (h) traffic to aircraft likely to be affected; and. Applicable to this occurrence, where the valid TAF indicated weather below landing minima at the destination, and a recent observation report indicated weather above the minima (without a trend specified, that is no TTF), CASA reported that: for in-flight planning considerations the decision making must be based on the forecast element so a pilot must hold an alternate and applicable fuel but is able to make a decision to attempt an approach at the destination should the flight crew calculate additional fuel is available to do so. Oh dear Dr Marohasy, BoM must be triggered by this post: https://thewest.com.au/news/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-staff-step-up-industrial-action-ng-b88757610z. This information included the current TAF at the time the crew diverted to Mildura, which forecast a TEMPO period of low cloud covering their planned arrival time. This fog was included on the Adelaide Airport trend forecast (TTF) that was issued at 0800 but was forecast to clear by 0900. influence on the flight crews decision making of that information flow. Qantas 735 had not departed Sydney when the amended TAF for Adelaide was issued at 0700; however, they had entered the sterile cockpit[20] phase of flight. Fax:(03) 5021 1899 Flight watch personnel at Virgin reported reviewing this TAF for applicability to Velocity 1384. As a result, the systems supervisor contacted the BoM to advise them of the unexpected deterioration and that the current Mildura TAF did not reflect the severity of the conditions. Sun & Moon. However, as the Mildura AWIS was not broadcasting the actual weather conditions, which were consistent with the SPECI, it could be considered that ATC should have provided this SPECI information to incoming aircraft as ATC-initiated FIS. However, CAR 257(5) specified that if an emergency arises that, in the interests of safety, makes it necessary for an aircraft to land at an aerodrome where the meteorological minima is less than that determined for that aircraft operation at that aerodrome then CAR 257(4) did not apply. BoM observations, together with reports from Adelaide Airport tower controllers placed the fog well to the north of Adelaide Airport. The reasons for reviewing Trend Forecast services include: Aviation Cameras for Forecasters (AvCam). In the US, FIS is available from four types of service providers and operates independently of ATC, but in some cases will be a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)operated service. And I noted that some of the temperature variations were within the range of the warming attributed to global warming over the second half of the 20th century. please check the disclaimer before using these data. Although only one component of ABS, AWIS is the most prevalent ABS supporting nonmajor airports in Australia. FUEL CONFIGURATION (CONFIG) INDICATION. The BoM reported that the fog forecasting procedure for Adelaide Airport used various inputs, including a computer model, observed wind speed and direction at 2,000 ft, surface wind speed, recent precipitation, dew point depression, the position of high pressure systems, and dew point as a function of time of year. Mildura past 24 hours of temperature, wind, humidity and rain with graphs and archived historical data from Farmonline Weather. Tropical Cyclone Freddy possible over Coral Sea, Sydney ends near-record run below 30 degrees. All required review and, if pertinent, broadcast to relevant traffic. Really? The crew of Qantas 735 applied a revised minimum to the approach that was 200 ft lower than that published. VIC Weather & Warnings; Warnings Summary; Forecasts; Melbourne Forecast; . As the Mildura AWIS was not broadcasting, application of the lower minima could only be applied if the actual QNH was obtained from ATC. On this basis, the decision was made that, given Velocity 1384 was planned to arrive at Adelaide at 0920, they would not be affected by the fog. Figure 1: Approximate aircraft positions at 0700, when the amended forecast for Adelaide was issued with a 30 per cent probability of fog, Figure 2: Approximate aircraft positions at 0800, when the trend forecast for Adelaide was issued with fog conditions forecast to lift at 0900, Figure 3: Approximate aircraft positions at 0900, just prior to initiating the diversion to Mildura. In particular, in relation to this occurrence, it was noted that pilots would have expected the crews of Velocity 1384 and Qantas 735 to have been told of the fog at Adelaide prior to changing to the Tailem Bend sector frequency. The investigation is continuing and will involve: The Australian Transport Safety Bureau acknowledges the traditional owners of country throughout Australia, and their continuing connection to land, sea and community. In my neck of the woods the BoM seem to be in the throes of replacing a long term, human attended, mercury thermometer and weather station with an AWS. The ATSB asked CASA for a ruling on the use of observations in-flight. Forecast for the rest of Saturday Summary Partly cloudy. The size of the change was assessed as small and the magnitude of the change as reasonable. Then, to discover new sampling stations are in different locations from the older ones but are assumed to be the same for temperature measurements is almost unbelievable. It is possible for incorrect values to appear. When Velocity 1384 departed Brisbane for Adelaide, the TAF that was current at the time showed favourable conditions for arrival and did not require the nomination of an alternate airport. Often the reports were consistent with the forecast, or were triggered by an improvement in conditions. The chance of a thunderstorm. The AIP defined hazard alerts to include: observations, pilot reports, or amended forecasts indicating that weather conditions at the destination have unexpectedly deteriorated below the IFR or VFR alternate minima, and. The fuel quantity remaining is indicated in tonnes on the upper display unit (Figure4). In relation to the weather at Mildura, the ATSB found that the deterioration was significantly worse than originally forecast. 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